kayakid on March 20th, 2011

(Editor’s note: This article is reproduced from FUTUREdition Volume 14, number 3. I found Mr. Pertersen’s thoughts to be very stimulating. I hope you do a well.)

by John L. Petersen
There are any number of sources – mostly unconventional – that are suggesting that this year is going to be particularly memorable for humanity and this planet. Most assessments of the Mayan calendar, for example, say we are entering a particularly active and disruptive period. The big astrological picture points to a ramping up of instability from now to April and then continued big shifts through September, and the Half Past Human folks see this year as being really quite extraordinary. Other sources like Kryon and the Hathors are explicit in describing what we are experiencing.

It’s one thing to hear these prognostications (among many others) in January and muse intellectually about the possibilities that might be on the horizon. It’s quite another – for me, at least – to watch the converging vectors of great change play out in the news each day.

We’re watching rapidly growing political instability and shifts within the Islamic Middle East – a trend that really caught most of the world flat-footed and now clearly has the potential of fundamentally – and rapidly – reconfiguring the geopolitics of the world. At the same time, the climate is generating all kinds of weather surprises – significant anomalies that haven’t been seen, in some cases in 1500 years.

In the energy arena a new report in the prestigious journal Nature proposes that the world may peak in its ability to economically mine and deliver coal within a decade. That’s new: peak coal. And now, the Wall Street Journal reports that ExxonMobil, a corporation which spent a great deal of money pooh-poohing the notion of peak oil is now discovering less than it is pumping. “The company said that for every 100 barrels it has pumped out of the earth over the past decade, it has replaced only 95. It’s a conundrum shared by most of the other large Western oil-producing companies, which are finding most accessible oil fields were tapped long ago, while promising new regions are proving technologically and politically challenging.”

Sounds like the classic description of peak oil to me.

There’s also big domestic political disruption in the U.S. that, responding to impending fiscal disaster on the horizon, feels like the first significant attempt to change the conventional approach to budgeting and politics since I’ve been around. This after the U.S. Federal Reserve has given as much as $15 trillion (really) to bail out foreign and U.S. banks and insurance companies and there are many indications that the present “recovery” is fundamentally manipulated. On that point, read this piece by Giordano Bruno on How to Fake an Economic Recovery. Discount the hyperbole, if you want, but think about the logic of the argument that is advanced.

The global financial system gives many indications of being in the final throes of one lifetime, about to be necessarily reincarnated into a new system that operates on a whole new set of principles. The transition will certainly be interesting.

There’s a growing sense of fear behind all of these changes with people desperately reaching out to apply conventional, familiar tools to push the out-of-control forces back into a familiar box of predictability. For example, in Obama’s budget there is $44 billion for naked body scanners for airports. Think about that. Why do we need 275 more naked body scanners? Are the terrorists beating their way through the conventional scanners that seem to work for every other building in the country? What good things could we do to deal with problems like education and poverty with $44 billion? How about rebuilding our infrastructure? And then, there’s good reason to believe that this technology is harmful to humans – that’s what I’ve heard from very authoritative sources who know what the technology is being used for in other areas. Maybe that’s why the Transportation Security Agency hasn’t published the report on the health implications of the scanners that has been mandated by Congress.

Our government, for instance, is contemplating a “kill switch” for the Internet in the U.S. This kind of thinking is extraordinarily short-sighted. The notion that the government wants to control (and potentially immobilize) the essential connective infrastructure of our society and species is an extension of the fundamentally flawed perspective that has undermined the commitment to net neutrality.

Here’s the idea. Humanity’s and America’s ability to rise to the extraordinary occasion of a global shift to a new world will be DIRECTLY determined by the ability of the Internet to facilitate the unimpeded flow of ideas needed to allow the organism to evolve. The Internet is a global brain – a global nervous system. Constraining it is like drugging a person and then hoping that they will be able to fly an airplane safely. You degrade the senses, response times decrease, new ideas are lost in the fog. The necessity to invent the solutions needed for a rapidly morphing world are fundamentally threatened if the nervous system is inhibited. Drunks don’t generate good ideas.

If the national and global nervous system is run on the golden rule of “he who has the gold, rules”, then it will necessarily degenerate to being heavily biased toward mediocrity. It doesn’t take much thought to understand that most of the people in a society don’t generate most of the new ideas and discoveries that illuminate the path to the future. In a world of junk food and cable television it’s obvious where the interests of most people lie, and it’s not National Public Radio and public television.

This is not just about engendering new ideas . . . it is about distributing and proliferating them. If a new idea never gets out of the shower where it showed up, it isn’t worth much. The organism grows and develops only if the new options are shared – broadly and rapidly shared.

The powers that be have influenced and shaped a world where the majority are numb to what is being discussed here. It is a world that is mostly about being economically productive enough to make a living and then being entertained during those times when one is not working. Value has been equated to money and acquiring money has become the principle objective.

That is the argument that is being made for the eliminating the underlying capability of the Internet to neutrally transmit whatever anyone wants – to let ideas flow. Listen to the politicians making the argument: they all argue about the investment made by the wireless companies. They are oblivious to the underlying function and extraordinarily power of the ideas that do, or do not, get proliferated. The ability of the social organism to evolve is absolutely determined by the health of the neural system and an environment that encourages development.

It’s like a child born with extraordinary, if not unlimited potential. In one situation, having the encouragement and freedom to explore and think and become everything that he or she might, the fledgling sees hope and opportunity and happily engages in becoming more than where they came from. In a constrained environment that revolves around mass market economics, the system produces mediocrity – individuals that must be sustained by the system and are unable to rise to the occasion that is being presented to all of us.

The notion is even more sinister if you consider the likely motivation of governments for developing the capability to shut the Internet down. It’s obvious in the way it has already been used. The proposal may be couched in “national security” and cyber attack defense terms, but in the end it is all about maintaining the power of the government in extraordinary times – regardless of what the people desire. That’s admirable to have this capability if there is a large-scale attempt to take down the system, for sure. But it is far more likely that the switch would be used to constrain ideas and behavior that the government (for whatever reason) found distasteful. Look around. The government and large institutions are largely about control.

It is not an overstatement to suggest that the literal future of humanity will depend upon the freedom (or not) that underpins the continued development of our species’ social nervous system – the Internet.

Of course, other major things are in play in this amazing confluence of converging forces and opportunities. Growing numbers of observers are pointing to accelerating changes in the earth’s magnetic field, for example, which protects us from a growing bath of cosmic energy that is coming from the center of our galaxy and also from the sun. Some are also positing the likely collapse and reconfiguration of the magnetosphere (a magnetic pole shift) that might also uncouple the crust of the earth from the moving liquid core . . . and lead to a physical pole shift.

Changing surface temperatures, the reconfiguration of water (and therefore weight), and the interaction of the earth and the sun appear to be producing more, larger earthquakes and volcanoes than have been seen in any time in modern history.

The changing magnetosphere and increasing energetic environment appears to be changing our DNA – opening up the possibility of a variety of new capabilities.

We are in the middle of an unprecedented basic reorganization of the physiology of plants, animals and humans, the reconfiguration of the essential operation of the planet, an explosive expansion of knowledge coupled with broad-based access to both the physical and spiritual, and a new era characterized by an evolutionary jump of our species. Seems like nothing less to me.

There are amazing breakthroughs happening and under development that have the clear potential of shaping a new world. It’s as though the organism is providing the means – like the Internet – for an evolutionary jump, but instead of preparing and adapting to the inevitable shift, most institutional efforts are trying to blunt it – to sustain the familiar. We must offer an alternative.

So, what’s driving all of this? Although certainly some aspects of the convergence of all of these events are hard to directly attribute to them, I think the major forces behind much of this change are the byproducts of unprecedented cosmic events – both related to unparalleled on-goings in the Milky Way galaxy, our solar system, other sources in the cosmos and activities of the Sun. Some of the explanations are necessarily unconventional (if they were conventional, everyone would know about them, wouldn’t they?), and certainly speculative, but they are informed by multiple substantive sources which all point in this general direction.

I’ve been doing a series of audio interviews over the past few months with a Swedish friend on different future-oriented subjects and a couple of weeks ago I addressed these cosmic shift issues directly, talking about what seems to be happening and what the implications might be. There are also ideas about how one might best position oneself to deal with this change. You can download that interview here until the 5th of March. This is a 44MB file and an hour-and-a-half-long interview so it may take a little time for you to download it. You’ll find it provocative though, I’d guess.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in the coming months. We’ll keep revisiting this transition in this space as it evolves.

kayakid on January 26th, 2011

VC funding for clean energy companies rose by more than 76 percent in 2010, moving from $2.1 billion in 2009 to $3.7 billion.

And of the ten biggest VC investments in 2010, five were clean energy companies:

  • Better Place (electric vehicles) – $350 million
  • BrightSource Energy (solar) – $150 million
  • Abound Solar (solar) – $111 million
  • Elevance Renewable Sciences (renewable fuels and chemicals) – $100 million
  • Fisker Automotive (electric vehicles) – $78 million
kayakid on January 25th, 2011

Texas Gas Service offers a very user friendly virtual energy home.  The interactive tour guides you through each room to highlight different features and techniques that will be helpful in saving energy in the winter as well as the summer.

Check it out here

kayakid on January 18th, 2011

This article is actually an email from Nick Hodge of Energy and Capital

According to Exxon’s (NYSE: XOM) official spokesman:

All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.

That’s the Exxon — the $383 billion market cap, world’s most profitable company Exxon.

I wonder what Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) thinks…

It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive.

That was Ron Oxburgh, former Chairman of Shell, back in 2008.

And in the past few weeks, former Shell CEO John Hofmeister has called for $5 gas and $150 oil in the near future.

He thinks “the supply and demand fundamentals continue to point to upside price pressure… as long as the U.S. fails to contribute more production to global supply.”

Don’t hold your breath. The U.S. has failed to contribute more oil production to global supply since 1970, when production peaked around 3.5 million barrels.

So I guess we’re in for more upside price pressure.

I know, I know, there’s plenty of oil

Whenever Peak Oil is mentioned, some message board troll always chimes in and says something like, “There’s plenty of oil.”

They’ll cite shale, or tar, or offshore, or the Bakken. And yes, there’s lots of oil in those places and types of formations.

But Peak Oil isn’t about depletion; it’s about production.

I’m sure Sadad Al-Husseini, former VP of Aramco (that’s the Saudi national oil company) can explain it better than I:

World reserves are confused and in fact inflated. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They’re not delineated, they’re not accessible, they’re not available for production.

You see, a trillion barrels of “reserves” — or two or three or ten — doesn’t do us a bit of good if we can’t get to it fast enough.

And according to the guy who was once in charge of oil operations for the country with the most reserves, reserves are inflated — and not accessible or available for production.

Just consider the U.S., where 3.65 billion barrels are “technically recoverable” from the Bakken formation…

That doesn’t change the fact that production peaked in 1970, and will never again get to the 3.5 million barrel per day level it once was.

It’s all about barrels in hand, not barrels in the bush.

Good to the last drop

And as production gets harder and harder (deeper and deeper, more energy intensive, more costly, under thicker rock, slower, etc.) what’s left will be worth more and more.

It’s happening, folks, faster than anyone would like to admit.

In 2007, the International Energy Agency said the world’s existing oilfields would decline at a 3.7% clip. By 2008, the same agency doubled the forecast decline rate to 6.7%

Then in 2010 — for the first time — the IEA actually acknowledged peak oil. In its most recent World Energy Outlook, the IEA concludes:

Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70 md/d reached in 2006.

The IEA’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol declared:

The era of cheap oil is over. Each barrel of oil that will come to market in the future will be much more difficult to produce and therefore more expensive. We all… should be prepared for oil prices being much higher than several years ago.

Those more difficult and more expensive barrels will be coming from unconventional sources, which the IEA thinks will play an “increasingly important” role in future world oil supply through 2035.

That means a quarter century of easy profits from companies with the technology to get those difficult barrels.

Peak Oil is here, or rather, was here in 2006. And it really doesn’t matter whose analysis you prefer:

$91 oil is here. $150 oil is coming.

$3.00 gas is here. $5.00 gas is coming.

And if you don’t want to be reeling in pain from increased costs at the pump and the store, you’ve got to invest in companies that will profit from exploiting unconventional sources of oil.

Tags:

kayakid on October 4th, 2010

How does the GOP spell climate change? J-O-K-E

How does China spell climate change? J-O-B-S

Check out this op-ed in the New York Times.

kayakid on October 1st, 2010

CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla just debuted  a new special on the business of garbage  Trash Inc.

Here are the high points:

The way New York City handles garbage is nothing short of amazing.  The bad news, they truck it all over the country.

Recycling reclaims barely over 20% of our refuse.  We COULD resuse 80%.  

Landfill operators are experimenting with ways to covert garbage to energy.  Methane gas, electricity via incineration, and liquid fuel for vehicles are a few of the things being attempted

China’s garbage problem is immense.

Trash ends up in the ocean via stream runnoff as much as willful dumping.   There are 5 areas of the oceans that are badly polluted.   Trash wases up on shore in Hawaii.  Mother nature is grinding the plastic into sand.

kayakid on September 16th, 2010

First question: What does this have to do with sustainability?

Answer: Debt is unsustainable. Entering into a loan of any sort is borrowing against the future. Sustainability is consuming resources no faster than they can be produced. The dilemma is clear. Borrowing is a mechanism that allows you to consume future production.

Second question: Why the title?

Answer: The word “mortgage” comes from Old French and means “death pledge”.

Third question: What else do debt and sustainability have in common?

Answer: Just like fossil fuels, you can easily reduce dependence on debt but it is almost impossible to avoid it in today’s society.

Fourth question: what other burden does debt put on the individual?

Answers: (partial list)
- The more debt (as measured by debt as a percentage of income), the less financial flexibility you have
- Paying all those bills complicates life
- Debt survives you and adds a burden to those that survive you

Question 5: What is the worst kind of debt?

Answer: Unsecured debt. That is credit card and lines of credit. They are the most expensive. It is OK to USE credit cards as long as you pay off the balance monthly. The credit card companies seem to have contests to invent new fees and charges to add when you don’t pay it all off or pay it late.

Question 6: Can I avoid debt completely?

Answer: Probably not. Durable goods (cars, refrigerators, houses) have become expensive because we consumers have been trained to think in terms of monthly payments instead of total cost and how long are you going to owe for it.

Question 7: Can you rant about this some more?

Answer: Oh yes. The 60 month car loan is criminal. Owing for a car for 5 years? What are the odds it will still be running in 5 years?

Question 8: What about student loans?

Answer: Inflation of education (i.e. rising cost of college) is faster than just about anything. This inflation is BECAUSE of student loans and grants. Worse yet, the graduate is burdened with debt that generally offsets the value gained by knowledge from college. Here is an alternative:

Question 9: Do you know that even the dollar is debt?

Answer: Yep, has been since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Debt-based currencies allow manipulations that turn national economies into casinos. By the way, all currencies are debt-based. Here is a partial list of the problems CAUSED by debt-based currency: – Bankers make more money from speculation than money lending – Malinvestments – money flows into whatever is politically correct, not what is the best return on investment – The road to hell is paved with good intentions. The people who decided where the money should flow make mistakes. – For more of the sordid history of the Federal Reserve click here

Question 10: So what is the alternative?

Answer: An asset-backed currency. Prior to 1913, a dollar was a warehouse receipt for 1/20 of an ounce of gold or an ounce of silver. A currency that is freely exchangeable at a fixed rate into something tangible is much less susceptible to manipulation.

Tags: ,

kayakid on September 14th, 2010

WOW!  It has been over a year since my last post.  Time flys.

My investments in green companies have been profitable, so my time researching green technologies has been fruitful.

That said, it is time to bring this site back online.   My posts here are going to be about whatever I discover or experience in the area of sustainability.  Don’t expect simply a punch list of actionable investment ideas.  There is a lot happening in this area and most of the work is being done by non-public (read you can’t invest in them) companies.

A couple of weeks ago, I stumbled in to a meeting of the McCombs CleanTech Group.  It felt like I had wandered into the 21st century version of the Homebrew Computer Club.   Just like future household names like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs were members of HBC, I expect some of the young people I met to become the titan of the now infant clean energy industry.

Several speakers talked about the work there is to do in alternative energy and how Texas is leading the way (surprise). 

There is so much cool stuff to experience and report in the area of Sustainability.  Now is the time to participate!  I’ll keep you posted.

kayakid on August 17th, 2009

I have not posted anythig on this site for some time.   Why you ask?

A lot of cost and effort go into updating this site.   I gained a lot of insight into the companies that are leading this revolution and quite simply put, I am unwilling to share this information for free.

I am making money from the knowledge gained while researching for this site.  I am continuing my research for my own account.   I expect to make a fortune from it.   I will not give it away.

If you want to participate, comment on this article with a valid email address and I will discuss my fee for providing this information.

kayakid on July 25th, 2009

I’ve heard all kinds of remarks since T. Boone (of Pickens Plan fame) (put the brakes on one of the world’s largest planned wind farms recently.

Hardly any of them have been good, most of them are even using this to signal the death of renewables.

The death of renewables? Phooey.

This is the death of T. Boone’s grandiose wind plans. Nothing more.

He’s still in the wind business per his own admission. He’s still going to employ the $2 billion worth of GE wind turbines he’s already purchased. He’s just not using them all at one giant wind farm, mostly due to Texas’ lagging in building out transmission.

Don’t miss my upcoming article about transmission issues and the Smart Grid

Here’s some data the media and the uninformed seem to be forgetting about.